The Czech economy measured by real GDP stagnated on a qoq basis in the third quarter   15.11.2011 10:56

According to the CSO flash estimate, the Czech economy measured by real GDP stagnated on a qoq basis in the third quarter ( 1.5% yoy). The data was weaker than the market ( 0.2% qoq) and we expected ( 0.4% qoq). However, these data are preliminary and may be revised substantially. The final number together with the structure of GDP will be released 12 December. According to our estimate, the industrial sector contracted in the third quarter (the industrial output fell 0.6% qoq); on the other hand, some improvement was probably posted in the construction sector and in agriculture thanks to this year's better harvest.

The development in the coming quarters will be of greater importance. The most important trade partner of the Czech Republic, the EMU, will not perform strongly. This will affect firstly the industrial sector and, with some time lag, we should see an impact also in other sectors (especially in private services). Only agriculture should expand due to the good harvest. Overall, we expect the Czech economy to add 0.2% qoq in the last quarter and to stay flat in H112. For the whole year 2012, we see GDP growth at just 0.5% yoy.

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The Czech economy measured by real GDP stagnated on a qoq basis in the third quarter

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