The economy is set to remain resilient despite the energy shock We forecast economic growth to slow slightly to 2.3% this year, before picking up again next year to 2.8%. In both years, GDP growth is still likely to be driven mainly by domestic demand – including consumption and investment – and expansionary fiscal policy.

Inflation should gradually increase to 3% due to higher energy costs We expect inflation to average 2.2% this year, before rising to 2.7% next year as higher fuel and energy prices feed through to other areas of the economy. We see both headline and core inflation remaining in the upper half of the CNB’s tolerance band for most of 2026 and 2027.