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Ad-hoc reports: The CNB eased its hawkish rhetoric, but will not change rates for now

18/12/2025 18:42

As expected, the CNB left interest rates unchanged. The central bank’s previously relatively hawkish communication was softened by a change in the balance of risks of the outlook for the fulfilment of the inflation target, which shifted from ‘pro-inflationary‘ to ‘balanced‘. According to the governor, this reassessment is due to new risks arising from a potential global correction in asset prices, as well as a reduction in energy prices resulting from the transfer of payments for renewable energy sources to the government. However, given the administrative nature of lower energy prices and their only temporary effect on inflation, the Bank Board is willing to tolerate headline inflation slightly below the 2% target next year and will not respond by changing the monetary policy stance. According to the governor, the central bank’s next steps could go in either direction. Our baseline scenario is that the repo rate will remain at 3.5% throughout next year.

Autor: Jaromír Gec
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