18/12/2025 18:42
As expected, the CNB left interest rates unchanged. The
central bank’s previously relatively hawkish communication was softened by a
change in the balance of risks of the outlook for the fulfilment of the
inflation target, which shifted from ‘pro-inflationary‘ to ‘balanced‘.
According to the governor, this reassessment is due to new risks arising from a
potential global correction in asset prices, as well as a reduction in energy
prices resulting from the transfer of payments for renewable energy sources to
the government. However, given the administrative nature of lower energy prices
and their only temporary effect on inflation, the Bank Board is willing to
tolerate headline inflation slightly below the 2% target next year and will not
respond by changing the monetary policy stance. According to the governor, the
central bank’s next steps could go in either direction. Our baseline scenario
is that the repo rate will remain at 3.5% throughout next year.