19/03/2026 11:30
This
analysis estimates the impact of temporary and permanent increases in oil
prices of various magnitudes on the Czech economy, inflation, interest rates
and the koruna exchange rate. In general, our estimate suggests that a
temporary 10% increase in oil prices would have only a limited impact on GDP
growth and inflation. However, a permanent increase of the same magnitude would
lead to visible inflationary pressures, higher interest rates and increased
government bond yields, accompanied by a more significant weakening of the
koruna. Nevertheless, the actual response may currently be milder than the
results presented, given the Czech economy’s gradually declining energy intensity.
The volatility of the koruna exchange rate is also less pronounced than in the
past, while depreciation is an important factor in transmitting the oil shock
to final prices.