The economy is exceeding expectations and is set to continue growing rapidly We expect its current resilience, combined with the impact of strong fiscal stimulus domestically and in Germany, to contribute to GDP growth of 2.7% this year and next. We also think that this growth will be widespread, driven by both domestic and foreign demand.

Inflation should fall below 2% this year but rise above the target again next year The main reason for this year’s decline is significantly lower energy prices. However, strong fiscal expansion, combined with a recovering economy should gradually adversely impact price developments. After averaging 1.6% this year, we expect inflation to rise to 2.3% next year. Core inflation should remain above the CNB’s 2% target in both years.

The economy is exceeding expectations and is set to continue growing rapidly We expect its current resilience, combined with the impact of strong fiscal stimulus domestically and in Germany, to contribute to GDP growth of 2.7% this year and next. We also think that this growth will be widespread, driven by both domestic and foreign demand.

Inflation should fall below 2% this year but rise above the target again next year The main reason for this year’s decline is significantly lower energy prices. However, strong fiscal expansion, combined with a recovering economy should gradually adversely impact price developments. After averaging 1.6% this year, we expect inflation to rise to 2.3% next year. Core inflation should remain above the CNB’s 2% target in both years.

The Czech National Bank is unlikely to cut interest rates this year due to the inflationary effect of fiscal policy In addition to the anticipated fiscal expansion, the unexpectedly strong economy is another reason why the CNB is unlikely to cut rates. However, given the change in the CNB’s communication, a cut cannot be ruled out this year. If this happens, we believe it will most likely be in the spring.

The return of the upward trend in market rates Financial market expectations for the easing of domestic monetary policy should temporarily halt the upward trend in CZK interest rates. However, a reassessment of market expectations for the CNB, combined with fiscal policy easing at national and international levels, should contribute to the resumption of this trend in the rest of the year.

Koruna to strengthen slightly against the euro this year More dovish rhetoric from the central bank and a decline in headline inflation below the 2% target may put the CZK under depreciation pressure in the short term. However, subsequently, we expect it to strengthen slightly, supported by a widening interest rate differential and continued strong growth in the Czech economy.

According to our estimates, Moneta should report revenue growth. Lower financing costs and improved lending activity will positively impact NII. Moneta continues to demonstrate cost discipline. For 4Q25 alone, we project a +4.3% yoy increase in total revenue to CZK3.6bn. We project operating profit of CZK2.0bn (+5.7% yoy) and net profit of CZK1.6bn (-0.3% yoy). Over the past year, Moneta has achieved revenues of CZK13.9b (+7.8% yoy) and a +11.4% yoy increase in net profit to CZK6.5bn. Moneta will thus exceed its updated targets. Full-year net profit indicates a dividend of CZK11.4 per share.

Publication date: Tuesday, February 3, 2026, at 7:00 a.m.

According to our estimates, Moneta should report revenue growth. Lower financing costs and improved lending activity will positively impact NII. Moneta continues to demonstrate cost discipline. For 4Q25 alone, we project a +4.3% yoy increase in total revenue to CZK3.6bn. We project operating profit of CZK2.0bn (+5.7% yoy) and net profit of CZK1.6bn (-0.3% yoy). Over the past year, Moneta has achieved revenues of CZK13.9b (+7.8% yoy) and a +11.4% yoy increase in net profit to CZK6.5bn. Moneta will thus exceed its updated targets. Full-year net profit indicates a dividend of CZK11.4 per share.

NII for the fourth quarter of 2025 will increase by +2.7% yoy to CZK2.5bn. The decline in financing costs and increased lending activity will have positive impact. We continue to expect successful sales of investment products (CZK931m, +14.4% yoy). Total operating income for 4Q25 will grow by +4.3% yoy to CZK3.6bn. We expect operating expenses to grow slightly to CZK1.6bn (+2.7% yoy). According to our model, operating profit should reach CZK2.0bn (+5.7% yoy). However, we expect risk costs to increase due to the very low comparative base. We estimate that the effective tax rate will be like that of previous quarters (15.2%). According to our estimates, net profit for 4Q25 will reach CZK1.6bn, which is a 0.3% yoy decrease.

Moneta will surpass its updated guidance for 2025. Total revenues are expected to reach CZK13.9bn (+7,8 % y/y, target CZK13.8bn). Operating costs are expected to be CZK5.8bn (+1,4 % y/y, target CZK5.8bn), and operating profit is expected to be CZK8.1bn (+12,9 % y/y, target CZK8.0bn). We estimate the cost of risk at 17bps (target 17.5–22.5bps) and the net profit at CZK6.5bn (+11,4 % y/y, target CZK6.3bn).

Dividend: Moneta pays out 90% of its net profit. Projected earnings for 2025 suggest a dividend of CZK11.4 per share. Compared to the current market price, this represents a gross yield of +5.5%.