Issuance activity: Tomorrow, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK3.0bn of 2029 bonds and CZK3.0bn of 2036 floater. The November issuance calendar indicates a total issuance of CZK21.5bn, confirming a relatively strong supply on the primary market (compared to the ytd average of CZK15.3bn and the actual average monthly issuance of CZK30.9bn). Conversely, the T-bill issuance indication for November is only CZK5.0bn and EUR0.5bn. The lower-than-expected T-bill issuance may help to reduce financing needs in 2027, as the MinFin assumed in its July Strategy that next year’s T-bill redemptions (combined CZK and EUR) would reach CZK165.2bn. However, ytd issuance of T-bills maturing in 2027 is only CZK72.9bn. Regarding bonds, the Ministry of Finance has issued a total of CZK309.3bn of CZGBs on the primary market (the Ministry projects CZK270-370bn for the full year), as well as an additional CZK121.8bn on the secondary market.

Issuance activity: Tomorrow, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK3.0bn of 2029 bonds and CZK3.0bn of 2036 floater. The November issuance calendar indicates a total issuance of CZK21.5bn, confirming a relatively strong supply on the primary market (compared to the ytd average of CZK15.3bn and the actual average monthly issuance of CZK30.9bn). Conversely, the T-bill issuance indication for November is only CZK5.0bn and EUR0.5bn. The lower-than-expected T-bill issuance may help to reduce financing needs in 2027, as the MinFin assumed in its July Strategy that next year’s T-bill redemptions (combined CZK and EUR) would reach CZK165.2bn. However, ytd issuance of T-bills maturing in 2027 is only CZK72.9bn. Regarding bonds, the Ministry of Finance has issued a total of CZK309.3bn of CZGBs on the primary market (the Ministry projects CZK270-370bn for the full year), as well as an additional CZK121.8bn on the secondary market.

Market situation: The CZGB weakened in ASW terms, with spreads close to their widest in three months. On Wednesday, the October flash CPI will be released. We expect headline inflation to temporarily ease to 2.3% yoy (vs. a consensus of 2.5% yoy), mainly due to the impact of food prices, before accelerating again. On Thursday, the CNB is likely to raise its repo rate by 25bp to 4.0%, with a new forecast showing lower growth and higher inflation. We forecast average inflation of 3.0% in 2027, up from 2.1% in 2026, and expect the CNB to maintain its repo rate at 4.0% for an extended period. Full previews for this week can be found in SG’s Week Ahead in Economics, quarterly Czech Economic Outlook is available here: https://bit.ly/CEO_4Q26_EN.

Rates outlook: Although further rate hikes beyond the November meeting cannot be ruled out, we still consider the market’s expectation of a repo rate rising to 4,75- 5% over the next year to be excessive, as confirmed recently also by comments from the CNB. Longer CZK IRS and CZGB yields are likely to continue to mimic the core markets, with neither 10-year Bund yields nor 10-year EUR IRS having peaked yet, according to the external assumptions of our forecast.

Moneta reported a net profit for the third quarter that exceeded market consensus by a substantial +11.8%. Net profit increased by +20.5% yoy to reach CZK2.2bn. This corresponds to a RoTE of 28.2%. These significantly improved results are due to higher revenues, lower costs, and a very low cost of risk. Moneta's strong figures showed a solid yoy increase and significantly exceeded market consensus. Moneta’s management has also raised its full-year targets by +4.4%.

Moneta reported a net profit for the third quarter that exceeded market consensus by a substantial +11.8%. Net profit increased by +20.5% yoy to reach CZK2.2bn. This corresponds to a RoTE of 28.2%. These significantly improved results are due to higher revenues, lower costs, and a very low cost of risk. Moneta's strong figures showed a solid yoy increase and significantly exceeded market consensus. Moneta’s management has also raised its full-year targets by +4.4%.

Total operating income for 3Q26 increased by a significant +11.5% yoy, reaching CZK3.9bn. This exceeded estimates by 3.0%. NII increased by +12.1% yoy, but other income categories also grew (NF&C by +5.8% and others by +28.6%). NIM increased both qoq (+10bps) and yoy (+20bps), reaching 2.2%. Strict cost control resulted in a decline of 2.2% yoy to CZK1.3bn, which is 4.5% better than the consensus estimate. Operating profit of CZK2.6bn increased by a significant +19.7% yoy. This beat market estimates by +7.1%. This is due to higher revenues and lower costs. The very low CoR, at CZK78m, was unexpected. The market had expected CZK172m. Net profit for 3Q26 was CZK2.2bn, representing yoy growth of +20.5%. Moneta thus exceeded market estimates by +11.8%. RoTE reached 28.2%.

The loan portfolio increased by +10.4% yoy to CZK318bn. Both retail loans (+5.1% yoy to CZK197bn) and, in particular, commercial loans increased. The latter recorded growth of +20.3% yoy to CZK120bn. Within this category, Moneta granted a higher volume of investment loans (+24.8% yoy to CZK67.1bn). The volume of new loans granted increased by +39.2% yoy, reflecting strong demand. The NPL ratio remained at a very low level of 0.9%.

Customer deposits rose by +4.5% yoy.  

Moneta’s capital adequacy ratio stood at 19.03%. The excess capital above Moneta’s management target (15.5%) amounts to CZK6.4bn.

2026 Guidance: Moneta has raised its FY projections. This is the second time this year. Total income is expected to reach CZK15.0bn (previously CZK14.8bn), with costs of CZK5.9bn (previously CZK5.9bn). Operating profit is expected to reach CZK9.1bn (previously CZK8.9bn), with net profit CZK7.1bn (previously CZK6.8bn). Management estimates the cost of risk at 20–30bps.

 

The published figures YTD account for approximately 74.5% of revenue, just 70.9% of operating costs, 76.8% of operating profit and 77.8% of net profit. This is compared against Moneta’s updated outlook.