Czech inflation accelerated significantly from 1.4% yoy in February to 1.9% yoy in March. This was slightly below the market consensus of 2.0% yoy, but above our estimate of 1.7% yoy. In its latest forecast from February, the central bank had expected March inflation to reach 1.6% yoy. The final CPI figures once again only confirmed the statistical office’s preliminary estimate of overall consumer price developments.

Czech inflation accelerated significantly from 1.4% yoy in February to 1.9% yoy in March. This was slightly below the market consensus of 2.0% yoy, but above our estimate of 1.7% yoy. In its latest forecast from February, the central bank had expected March inflation to reach 1.6% yoy. The final CPI figures once again only confirmed the statistical office’s preliminary estimate of overall consumer price developments.

Higher fuel prices were the main cause of inflation rising in March. Fuel prices rose sharply by 19.4% mom, driven by the conflict in the Middle East and the subsequent increase in oil prices. In yoy terms, fuel prices were 13% higher, following an 8.4% yoy decline in February. This significant shift in annual dynamics was also influenced by a lower comparison base, given that fuel prices had fallen strongly in March 2025. Consequently, we estimate that fuel prices contributed 0.6-0.7pp to headline inflation in March. The price increase at petrol stations was slightly higher than we forecast, accounting for roughly half of the deviation from our March inflation estimate. Regulated prices, on the other hand, rose by only 0.1% mom, in line with our forecast. Therefore, their development did not yet reflect the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Regulated prices were 1.1% yoy lower in March, as the effect of transferring renewable energy payments to the state, which came into effect in January, continued to be felt.

Food prices continued to fall, helping to keep inflation below the CNB’s target. In March, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices declined by 0.7% mom and 1.1% yoy. Meanwhile, the prices of alcohol and tobacco fell by 0.3% mom, though they still saw a 3.3% yoy increase. The gradual spillover of the previous sharp fall in food and agricultural producer prices, combined with Easter discounts, likely contributed to the further decline in food prices for consumers. According to our calculations, the overall decline in the food price category reduced headline inflation by around 0.3pp in March, partially offsetting the impact of higher fuel prices.

Core inflation increased from 2.7% to 2.9% yoy in March, supported by an acceleration in imputed rent growth from 5.1% to 5.4% yoy. The mom increase in imputed rents of 0.5% was also significant, reflecting the continued strong growth in house prices. This pushed services inflation up from 4.5% to 4.7% yoy in March. However, annual growth in paid rents remained unchanged at 6.1%. Core inflation accelerated from 2.7% yoy in February to 2.9% yoy in March, which was slightly higher than the central bank’s (2.8% yoy) and our (2.7% yoy) expectations.

We forecast inflation to increase above the central bank’s 2% target in April and remain there until the end of the year. On a monthly average basis, fuel prices are likely to rise again in April, accelerating annual growth further. Additionally, the base effect will continue to be a factor given that fuel prices fell significantly last spring (from March to May). Food prices also fell mom in April 2025, likely supported by the later timing of the Easter holidays. Therefore, the fading of Easter discounts in March 2026, a lower comparison base and the partial reflection of higher fuel prices could cause a marked acceleration in annual food price growth this April. Consequently, we estimate a further increase in headline inflation to 2.5% yoy in April. We then expect inflation to remain near this level until the end of the year, averaging 2.2-2.3% in 2026. However, the path of future inflation will depend heavily on the intensity and duration of the conflict in the Middle East, which is associated with significant uncertainty. This will also be crucial for developments in non-energy inflation components.

We expect the government measures adopted in April, including reducing the diesel excise tax and capping fuel sellers’ margins, to have only a limited impact. Based on our calculations, the reduction in diesel excise tax will lower headline inflation by 0.06pp. Capping fuel sellers’ margins should not have a significant impact, as these were already below the approved ceiling, according to the Ministry of Finance’s latest available data from mid-March. However, some fuel sellers appear to have raised their margins to the level of the approved cap, which could temporarily have the opposite effect than expected. Nevertheless, the government caps could contribute to the faster transmission of wholesale oil prices to prices at petrol stations, in both directions.

Announcement date: Thursday, April 17, 2026, at 5pm

Kofola announced selected preliminary results for last year Feb. 17, including an outlook for 2026.

Along with the annual report, which will be published next week, the key focus will be on the color of first-quarter revenue. From a seasonal perspective, the summer (3Q) is the most important period for Kofola. Nevertheless, even the 1Q results, which are typically weaker, can provide insight into market conditions. In our estimates, we expect Kofola’s 1Q26 revenue to grow by +7.6% yoy to CZK2.25bn.

Full-year guidance should be confirmed: EBITDA of CZK1.8–1.9bn with revenue growth of +10% yoy (including acquisitions; +4% yoy on an organic basis), with agearing of 3.0x and CAPEX of 45–50% of EBITDA. The dividend should be in the range of CZK13.5–21.0 per share.

Dividend: We expect a dividend proposal to be made. For last year, we anticipate a payout at the upper end of the range offered by Kofola, i.e., CZK21.0. This would imply a gross yield of +4.4%. The dividend amount will remain unchanged yoy (from 2024 earnings of 7.50+13.50).

Announcement date: Thursday, April 17, 2026, at 5pm

Kofola announced selected preliminary results for last year Feb. 17, including an outlook for 2026.

Along with the annual report, which will be published next week, the key focus will be on the color of first-quarter revenue. From a seasonal perspective, the summer (3Q) is the most important period for Kofola. Nevertheless, even the 1Q results, which are typically weaker, can provide insight into market conditions. In our estimates, we expect Kofola’s 1Q26 revenue to grow by +7.6% yoy to CZK2.25bn.

Full-year guidance should be confirmed: EBITDA of CZK1.8–1.9bn with revenue growth of +10% yoy (including acquisitions; +4% yoy on an organic basis), with agearing of 3.0x and CAPEX of 45–50% of EBITDA. The dividend should be in the range of CZK13.5–21.0 per share.

Dividend: We expect a dividend proposal to be made. For last year, we anticipate a payout at the upper end of the range offered by Kofola, i.e., CZK21.0. This would imply a gross yield of +4.4%. The dividend amount will remain unchanged yoy (from 2024 earnings of 7.50+13.50).

The results for 4Q25 and for FY25 should come as no surprise. The reported selected preliminary figures, as well as our estimates for EBIT and net profit, are shown in the table above.  Despite a decline in revenue in 4Q25, EBITDA likely grew due to strict cost control. Full-year results were negatively impacted by the sugar tax introduced in Slovakia at the beginning of the year. The weather also had negative impact. Full-year revenue and EBITDA declined at roughly the same rate. Compared to its own projections, Kofola managed to slightly exceed them for the full year. The targets were for a -4% yoy decline in revenue and CZK1,750m in EBITDA.