14/01/2025 13:58
Issuance activity: Tomorrow, MinFin is scheduled to
auction CZK5.0bn of 2029 bonds, CZK4.0bn of 2031 bonds and CZK2.0bn of 2037
bonds. Last year, the state budget ran a deficit of CZK271.4bn, compared to
the planned CZK282.0bn. This year, according to the adopted law, the deficit
should be reduced to CZK241.0bn. Czech public finances thus continue their
consolidation path, with the negative balance narrowing to just over 2% of GDP
this year after 2.7% of GDP in 2024 (the best result since 2019), according to
our estimates. MinFin’s new Funding and Debt Management Strategy puts total
gross CZGB issuance for 2025 at CZK350-450bn, after CZK352.0bn in 2024. We
estimate that actual gross issuance is more likely to be in the upper half of
MinFin’s range. For January, the indicative amount is set at CZK23.0bn, i.e.
CZK7.0bn higher mom.
16/01/2025 11:12
Investment recommendation: We have updated our model for MONETA Money Bank. Based on the new forecasts, we set a new price target for Moneta of CZK143.3. This corresponds to a Buy rating (the recommendation and target price were under review on 7/25/2024). Moneta trades at a premium to its peer group. According to our estimates, Moneta trades at a P/B of 2.3x, a P/E of 13.4x and a P/S of 5.8x. The median of the peer group is 1.3x, 6.8x and 1.2x. We believe that the premium is justified. This could be due to a strong capital position, asset quality, a conservative business model or a high dividend.