18/03/2025 13:24
Issuance activity: Tomorrow, MinFin is scheduled to
auction CZK1.0bn of 2043 floater. In general, CZGBs floaters play a rather
minor role, accounting for less than 10% of marketable state debt. MinFin
continues its limited presence on the market after it has reduced last week’s
auction. Overall, MinFin finds itself in a relatively comfortable position with
CZK87.5bn issued in primary actions ytd, already exceeding the total indicative
amount for Q1 set at CZK85.0bn. In addition, MinFin has sold an additional
CZK9.7bn and EUR250.0mn of bonds in the secondary market. Czech public finances
remain in good shape, with our estimate of a fiscal deficit of 2.3% of GDP this
year and further consolidation enshrined in law. However, we expect the Czech
national fiscal rules (which are stricter than the EU's Maastricht criteria) to
be relaxed as the government proposes to exempt defense spending above 2% of
GDP from the rules. This should be accompanied by an increase in defense
spending by 0.2pp of GDP per year to reach 3% of GDP in 2030, according to the
government’s proposal.