07/11/2025 15:16
The
CNB’s interest rates remained unchanged after yesterday’s meeting, as expected.
There were no surprises in Governor Michl’s press conference either, as he
continued to emphasise inflationary risks. However, he said that the central
bank’s next steps could go either way and would be data dependent. In its new
forecast, the CNB expects slightly lower inflation and economic growth this
year and next, but slightly higher interest rates. Due to the assumption of a
more expansionary fiscal policy, we expect the CNB to keep rates stable for an
extended period. Nevertheless, we still see a greater likelihood for rates to
be cut rather than hiked in its next move, provided that the more expansionary
fiscal policy does not materialise and the disinflationary trend in the economy
persists.