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Ad-hoc reports: Weak economy should prompt further CNB rate cuts

08/11/2024 15:33

At yesterday’s meeting, the Czech National Bank cut interest rates again at a cautious pace of 25bp, in line with expectations. In its newly published forecast, the CNB expects growth in the Czech economy to accelerate significantly from 4Q24 and inflation to remain above the 2% target until 2026. Nevertheless, the CNB expects the repo rate to reach its neutral level of 3% in 2Q25. We expect the same, but with a lower GDP and inflation outlook. Specifically, we expect a 25bp cut in the repo rate at each of the CNB’s monetary policy meetings until May 2025. The bank’s board has continued to stress that the next steps will depend on newly released data. In our view, the data should point to ongoing weakness in the economy, which should be the main reason for further monetary easing.

Autor: Martin Gürtler
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