Issuance activity: Tomorrow, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK2.0bn of 2035 bonds, CZK2.0bn of 2037 bonds and CZK2.0bn of 2038 floaters. The amount of subscribed retail bonds during the first subscription period, which ended on June 28, reached approx. CZK80.0bn according to MinFin. There are two more periods in this year: one in August-September, with only the 3m bill on tap, and the second before Christmas, with all three bonds on offer. Overall, with CZK291.2bn issued on the primary and secondary market combined ytd and MinFin’s indicated issuance volume on financial markets prior to the retail bonds campaign at CZK400-500bn, the issuance pace is likely to slow in 2H26 before picking up in 2027 (or eventually in 4Q26 already) due to a deeper budget deficit and higher redemptions next year.

Issuance activity: Tomorrow, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK2.0bn of 2035 bonds, CZK2.0bn of 2037 bonds and CZK2.0bn of 2038 floaters. The amount of subscribed retail bonds during the first subscription period, which ended on June 28, reached approx. CZK80.0bn according to MinFin. There are two more periods in this year: one in August-September, with only the 3m bill on tap, and the second before Christmas, with all three bonds on offer. Overall, with CZK291.2bn issued on the primary and secondary market combined ytd and MinFin’s indicated issuance volume on financial markets prior to the retail bonds campaign at CZK400-500bn, the issuance pace is likely to slow in 2H26 before picking up in 2027 (or eventually in 4Q26 already) due to a deeper budget deficit and higher redemptions next year.

Market situation: Czech rates came under downward pressure last week following lower-than-expected June CPI (more here: https://bit.ly/CPI_Jun26_EN) and dovish communication by NBP Chief Glapinski following the interest rate decision. However, another round of escalation in the conflict in the Middle East has recently reversed these moves amid the flattening of the CZK IRS and CZGB curves.

Rates outlook: Our baseline scenario is that CNB interest rates will remain on hold for the rest of this year, as we view the June hike as primarily a precautionary measure. However, in terms of the next possible rate movement, we still consider a hike to be more likely than a cut. This is due to the robust domestic economy, rapid wage growth, fiscal expansion (more here: https://bit.ly/CNB_Jun26_EN).

We expect robust income growth, unchanged margins, slightly higher operating costs and an increase in credit costs. According to our projections, net income for the second quarter will reach CZK1.65bn, which is an increase of +1.1% yoy. Despite an estimated +7.4% yoy increase in operating profit, net income has only increased slightly compared to last year. This is due to a sharp rise in cost of risk. We also expect Moneta to reiterate its full-year targets.

Publication date: Friday, July 24, 2026, at 7:00 a.m.

We expect robust income growth, unchanged margins, slightly higher operating costs and an increase in credit costs. According to our projections, net income for the second quarter will reach CZK1.65bn, which is an increase of +1.1% yoy. Despite an estimated +7.4% yoy increase in operating profit, net income has only increased slightly compared to last year. This is due to a sharp rise in cost of risk. We also expect Moneta to reiterate its full-year targets.

According to our model, interest income will increase by +3.4% yoy, reflecting demand for loans and loan portfolio growth. In contrast, funding costs are expected to decline slightly (-1.2% yoy). Net interest income is expected to increase by +8.2% yoy, reaching CZK2.6bn. NIM is not expected to change qoq, but will be 10bps higher yoy. NF&C is expected to decline slightly compared to the same period last year due to non-recurring items. Total operating income is expected to rise by +5.6% yoy to CZK3.6bn. We estimate slower growth in operating expenses, which are expected to total CZK-1.4bn (+2.9% yoy). Unlike in the first quarter, these will not include regulatory fees. We anticipate that operating profit will reach CZK2.2bn (+7.4% yoy). Given the announced client default, cost of risk is expected to more than double yoy to CZK-240m (+105% yoy). Net income is expected to be CZK1.6bn (+1.1% yoy), and RoTE will be 21.3%.

Guidance: Our estimates for the first half of this year account for 49% of Moneta’s full-year targets. We anticipate that Moneta will surpass its objectives, but its conservative approach means it will repeat the targets published in February 2026. Moneta aims to generate revenues of CZK14.6bn, expenses of CZK6.0bn, operating profit of CZK8.6bn and a net profit of CZK6.6bn. Cost of risk expected to be 20-35bps, the effective tax rate to be 15.5%, and RoTE 23%.