The economic outlook has deteriorated We expect the Czech economy to grow by 1.7% this year, accelerating to 2.3% next year. This is lower than in our previous forecast due to a weaker first half of the year and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Nevertheless, economic growth should remain resilient, particularly thanks to domestic demand.

Inflation is set to rise to 3% next year Following the 2.1% we forecast for this year, we expect a significant acceleration in inflation in 2027. This is mainly due to higher energy, fuel and food prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East and lower agricultural yields. Although core inflation should remain elevated, we forecast a slowdown, from 2.9% this year to 2.7% in 2027.

The economic outlook has deteriorated We expect the Czech economy to grow by 1.7% this year, accelerating to 2.3% next year. This is lower than in our previous forecast due to a weaker first half of the year and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Nevertheless, economic growth should remain resilient, particularly thanks to domestic demand.

Inflation is set to rise to 3% next year Following the 2.1% we forecast for this year, we expect a significant acceleration in inflation in 2027. This is mainly due to higher energy, fuel and food prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East and lower agricultural yields. Although core inflation should remain elevated, we forecast a slowdown, from 2.9% this year to 2.7% in 2027.

The CNB is likely to raise interest rates once again We expect the recent increase in core inflation and intensifying external price pressures to prompt the CNB to raise the key repo rate to 4% at its November meeting. It should then remain at that level until the end of next year. We do not anticipate a return to the policy-neutral level of 3% until 2028.

Global factors to keep market interest rates high As the energy shock gradually eases next year, we expect only a modest decline in longer-term koruna rates, given the continued strong demand for long-term financing. The short end of the yield curve should also be pushed lower by less pronounced tightening of domestic monetary policy than is priced in by the market.

Sentiment and CNB to put the koruna on hold The Czech koruna is likely to lack positive momentum for the rest of this year. We expect it to gradually appreciate against the euro next year, reaching EURCZK 24.0. This should be driven by stronger growth in the Czech economy compared to the eurozone, the stabilisation of the interest rate differential and the easing of geopolitical tensions.

Moneta reported a net profit for the third quarter that exceeded market consensus by a substantial +11.8%. Net profit increased by +20.5% yoy to reach CZK2.2bn. This corresponds to a RoTE of 28.2%. These significantly improved results are due to higher revenues, lower costs, and a very low cost of risk. Moneta's strong figures showed a solid yoy increase and significantly exceeded market consensus. Moneta’s management has also raised its full-year targets by +4.4%.

Moneta reported a net profit for the third quarter that exceeded market consensus by a substantial +11.8%. Net profit increased by +20.5% yoy to reach CZK2.2bn. This corresponds to a RoTE of 28.2%. These significantly improved results are due to higher revenues, lower costs, and a very low cost of risk. Moneta's strong figures showed a solid yoy increase and significantly exceeded market consensus. Moneta’s management has also raised its full-year targets by +4.4%.

Total operating income for 3Q26 increased by a significant +11.5% yoy, reaching CZK3.9bn. This exceeded estimates by 3.0%. NII increased by +12.1% yoy, but other income categories also grew (NF&C by +5.8% and others by +28.6%). NIM increased both qoq (+10bps) and yoy (+20bps), reaching 2.2%. Strict cost control resulted in a decline of 2.2% yoy to CZK1.3bn, which is 4.5% better than the consensus estimate. Operating profit of CZK2.6bn increased by a significant +19.7% yoy. This beat market estimates by +7.1%. This is due to higher revenues and lower costs. The very low CoR, at CZK78m, was unexpected. The market had expected CZK172m. Net profit for 3Q26 was CZK2.2bn, representing yoy growth of +20.5%. Moneta thus exceeded market estimates by +11.8%. RoTE reached 28.2%.

The loan portfolio increased by +10.4% yoy to CZK318bn. Both retail loans (+5.1% yoy to CZK197bn) and, in particular, commercial loans increased. The latter recorded growth of +20.3% yoy to CZK120bn. Within this category, Moneta granted a higher volume of investment loans (+24.8% yoy to CZK67.1bn). The volume of new loans granted increased by +39.2% yoy, reflecting strong demand. The NPL ratio remained at a very low level of 0.9%.

Customer deposits rose by +4.5% yoy.  

Moneta’s capital adequacy ratio stood at 19.03%. The excess capital above Moneta’s management target (15.5%) amounts to CZK6.4bn.

2026 Guidance: Moneta has raised its FY projections. This is the second time this year. Total income is expected to reach CZK15.0bn (previously CZK14.8bn), with costs of CZK5.9bn (previously CZK5.9bn). Operating profit is expected to reach CZK9.1bn (previously CZK8.9bn), with net profit CZK7.1bn (previously CZK6.8bn). Management estimates the cost of risk at 20–30bps.

 

The published figures YTD account for approximately 74.5% of revenue, just 70.9% of operating costs, 76.8% of operating profit and 77.8% of net profit. This is compared against Moneta’s updated outlook.