Issuance activity: On Wednesday, 21 October, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK4.0bn of 2031 bonds, CZK2.0bn of 2034 bonds and CZK1.0bn of 2043 floater. Last week, the MinFin announced that it had issued an additional CZK17.5bn of 3M retail T-bills. This year's total retail issuance has therefore reached CZK91.5bn. The retail campaign is likely to continue to reduce the overall CZGB supply on financial markets next year too, as another subscription period is already planned for the end of the year, with the securities being issued in 1Q27. So far this year, MinFin has issued a total of CZK292.6bn CZGBs on the primary market (MinFin projects CZK270 370bn for the full year), as well as an additional CZK121.8bn on the secondary market.

Issuance activity: On Wednesday, 21 October, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK4.0bn of 2031 bonds, CZK2.0bn of 2034 bonds and CZK1.0bn of 2043 floater. Last week, the MinFin announced that it had issued an additional CZK17.5bn of 3M retail T-bills. This year's total retail issuance has therefore reached CZK91.5bn. The retail campaign is likely to continue to reduce the overall CZGB supply on financial markets next year too, as another subscription period is already planned for the end of the year, with the securities being issued in 1Q27. So far this year, MinFin has issued a total of CZK292.6bn CZGBs on the primary market (MinFin projects CZK270 370bn for the full year), as well as an additional CZK121.8bn on the secondary market.

Market situation: CZGB yields are hovering just below recent local peaks, with a slight cheapening in ASW terms. With a light data calendar this week, it is likely that the Czech rates markets will continue to be driven primarily by core markets. However, with less than two weeks until the CNB's media blackout period begins on 29 October, we may start to hear comments from board members.

Rates outlook: Given the rise in core inflation and its momentum in September, we now expect the CNB to raise key repo rate by 25bp to 4% at its upcoming November meeting. Although further rate hikes beyond the November meeting cannot be ruled out, we still consider the market’s expectation of a repo rate rising to near 5% over the next year to be excessive, as confirmed recently also by comments from the CNB. Longer CZK IRS and CZGB yields are likely to continue to mimic the core markets, with neither 10-year Bund yields nor 10-year EUR IRS having peaked yet, according to the external assumptions of our forecast.

The loan portfolio increased in 3Q26. We also anticipate a modest increase in NIM. Revenues are expected to increase by +8.3% yoy. However, given the cost management measures in place, this figure is only expected to rise slightly yoy. According to our estimates, net profit for 3Q26 will increase +9.2% yoy to CZK2.0bn. We estimate that Moneta will reiterate its FY guidance. We also expect Moneta to announce an extraordinary dividend of CZK5.

Publication date: Friday, October 23, 2026, at 7:00 a.m.

The loan portfolio increased in 3Q26. We also anticipate a modest increase in NIM. Revenues are expected to increase by +8.3% yoy. However, given the cost management measures in place, this figure is only expected to rise slightly yoy. According to our estimates, net profit for 3Q26 will increase +9.2% yoy to CZK2.0bn. We estimate that Moneta will reiterate its FY guidance. We also expect Moneta to announce an extraordinary dividend of CZK5.

According to our model, NII will increase by +8.1% yoy to CZK2.7bn, driven by growth in the loan portfolio. Interest income and funding costs will both increase. We estimate that the NIM will rise by 0.1% yoy to 2.1%. On a quarterly basis, it should remain stable. NF&C is expected to grow by +16.1% yoy to CZK997m due to successful investment product sale. We expect total operating income to reach CZK3.8bn, representing yoy growth of +8.3%. Moneta's focus on efficiency and cost management is expected to result in a modest yoy increase in operating costs of 1.6% to CZK1.4bn. Operating profit is expected to be +12.4% higher yoy at CZK2.5bn. Although credit costs will rise from the extremely low level seen in 3Q25 (CZK74m) to CZK156m, they will fall qoq due to the absence of any corporate sector default. We expect the effective tax rate to be 15%. We estimate net profit to be CZK2.0bn, corresponding to yoy growth of +9.2%.

Dividend: In recent years, it has become a tradition for Moneta to pay its shareholders an extraordinary dividend. This is typically announced in autumn. We see the 3Q26 report as a good opportunity to present the proposal. As of 30 June 2026, Moneta had excess capital of approximately CZK8 per share. We believe that the market is anticipating an announcement of an extraordinary dividend of CZK5 per share. 

2026 Gguidance: Our YTD forecasts correspond to 77% and 78% of the full-year targets for operating and net profit, respectively. Revenue stands at 75%, while costs stand at just 72%. Our conservative prediction is that management will reiterate the FY projections. Please note that the last update to the full-year forecast was included in the 2Q26/1H26 report at the end of July.