Czech inflation rose further, from 1.9% yoy in March to 2.5% yoy in April. This was in line with market consensus but slightly above our own and the CNB forecast, which had both expected April inflation at 2.4% yoy. The final data for April thus confirmed the preliminary inflation estimate and provided detailed information on the structure of price developments.

Czech inflation rose further, from 1.9% yoy in March to 2.5% yoy in April. This was in line with market consensus but slightly above our own and the CNB forecast, which had both expected April inflation at 2.4% yoy. The final data for April thus confirmed the preliminary inflation estimate and provided detailed information on the structure of price developments.

Fuel prices continued to increase. Fuel prices rose by an average of 7.3% mom in April, following an increase of almost 20% mom in March. Consequently, annual fuel price growth accelerated further, from 13% yoy in March to 24.5% yoy in April. This was also driven by the base effect, as fuel prices had fallen in spring 2025. The further acceleration in fuel price growth was the main driver of the increase in headline inflation in April, contributing 0.3-0.4pp according to our estimate. This was marginally offset by the reduction in excise duty on diesel, which came into effect in April. The statistical office estimates that tax changes had an overall impact of -0.069pp on April’s mom inflation.

Food price growth remained subdued. Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages fell by 0.4% mom in April, while prices for alcohol and tobacco rose by 0.9% mom. The overall food price category, including all beverages and tobacco, then posted a 0.1% mom increase. In yoy terms, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices were 1.3% lower in April, while alcohol and tobacco prices were 5.2% higher. Food prices are likely to gradually reflect higher energy, transport and fertiliser costs, but their current growth is likely still being influenced by last year’s strong agricultural harvest.

Regulated prices have increased only slightly so far. They were 0.2% mom higher in April. As regards household energy prices, only heat and hot water supplies rose by 0.9% mom in April. By contrast, electricity and gas prices continued to fall, likely reflecting the delayed effects of favourable developments in wholesale energy markets prior to the conflict in the Middle East. Electricity prices declined by 0.1% mom in April, as in March. Gas prices fell by 0.4% mom in April, following a decline of 0.5% mom in March. Apart from fuel prices, the current shock has thus not materially impacted other energy prices.

Core inflation remained at 2.9% yoy, but the annual increase in service and rent prices continued to accelerate. Core inflation was unchanged in April, after having risen from 2.7% to 2.9% yoy in March. This was in line with the central bank’s and our own forecasts. Meanwhile, services inflation rose further from 4.7% yoy in March to 4.8% yoy in April, with imputed rents accelerating from 5.4% to 5.5% yoy. The momentum of imputed rents remained strong at 0.4% mom in April. This was likely driven by the continued rapid growth in house prices, as well as the renewed rise in construction material prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East. Moreover, growth in paid rents increased from 6.1% yoy in March to 6.3% yoy in April. Airfare prices, which could be under upward pressure due to rising fuel costs, fell slightly by 0.4% mom in April, partially offsetting the 4.4% mom increase in March.

We expect inflation to average 2.2% this year, before accelerating to 2.7% next year. However, given the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the risks to our forecasts are skewed towards even higher inflation. We expect headline inflation to accelerate gradually over the rest of the year, approaching 3% yoy by the end of the year. We expect the effects of the Middle East conflict to feed through to non-energy components of inflation only gradually. We provide more details on our updated forecasts in our recently published Czech Economic Outlook: https://bit.ly/CEO_2Q26_EN.

We expect Colt CZ to report solid earnings growth in 1Q26. This is primarily due to its recent acquisition of the company NCL. The robust performance of the ammunition sector, particularly in Europe, should offset the ongoing weakness of the commercial firearms market in the US to some extent. We estimate yoy revenue growth of +31.6% to CZK7.3bn in the first quarter. According to our estimates, EBITDA will reach CZK1.7bn (+42.6% yoy). Colt CZ should start the year with a strong set of 1Q26 numbers. 

Announcement date: Thursday, May 21, 2026, before the market

We expect Colt CZ to report solid earnings growth in 1Q26. This is primarily due to its recent acquisition of the company NCL. The robust performance of the ammunition sector, particularly in Europe, should offset the ongoing weakness of the commercial firearms market in the US to some extent. We estimate yoy revenue growth of +31.6% to CZK7.3bn in the first quarter. According to our estimates, EBITDA will reach CZK1.7bn (+42.6% yoy). Colt CZ should start the year with a strong set of 1Q26 numbers. 

The U.S. commercial market is crucial for Colt within the firearms sales sector. According to the available data, total firearm sales in the US fell by 4.2% yoy in 1Q26. The weakness of this market thus persists. Nevertheless, it remains a critical sector for Colt in terms of firearms sales. Ammunition sales are expected to be robust, particularly in Europe, and should offset this decline. The inclusion of the Synthesia Nitrocellulose (NCL) acquisition, completed earlier this year, will significantly improve results. We expect total revenue for the first quarter to reach CZK7.3bn. This corresponds to yoy growth of +31.6%. EBITDA is expected to reach CZK1.7bn, indicating yoy growth of +42.6%. The margin is expected to increase by 1.8pps to 23.8%. We estimate net profit for the first quarter of 2026 at CZK806m, which is a yoy increase of +47.5%.

2026 Guidance: Based on its current targets, Colt CZ is expected to achieve EBITDA of CZK7.4–8.2bn on revenues of CZK 30–33bn for the full year. Our estimates for 1Q26 are 22.2% and 23.0% of total EBITDA and revenues, respectively. The end of the year is typically stronger from a seasonal perspective. Therefore, we expect Colt to reiterate its targets.