Issuance activity: Tomorrow, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK2.0bn of 2033 bonds, CZK2.0bn of 2035 bonds and CZK1.0bn of 2037 bonds. The April’s calendar indicates a total supply of CZK15.0bn of CZGBs, while the total issuance for 2Q has been reduced to only CZK50.0bn, signalling MinFin’s willingness to lower its activity during periods of market turmoil. However, with total sales in the primary and secondary markets combined reaching CZK115.9bn year to date, and the next redemption of maturing CZGBs not until June, MinFin still has relatively ample room for maneuvring in the short term. Nevertheless, issuance will have to accelerate considerably in 2H26 should the 2Q indication be met.

Issuance activity: Tomorrow, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK2.0bn of 2033 bonds, CZK2.0bn of 2035 bonds and CZK1.0bn of 2037 bonds. The April’s calendar indicates a total supply of CZK15.0bn of CZGBs, while the total issuance for 2Q has been reduced to only CZK50.0bn, signalling MinFin’s willingness to lower its activity during periods of market turmoil. However, with total sales in the primary and secondary markets combined reaching CZK115.9bn year to date, and the next redemption of maturing CZGBs not until June, MinFin still has relatively ample room for maneuvring in the short term. Nevertheless, issuance will have to accelerate considerably in 2H26 should the 2Q indication be met.

Market situation: Czech rates continue to follow trends in core markets, albeit with a greater magnitude. ASWs are relatively tight from a 90D perspective and have changed little compared to last week. Last Thursday, CNB unanimously left interest rates unchanged. The governor’s focus on core inflation trends suggests that the CNB may partially look through the impact of higher oil prices. Therefore, a rate hike does not appear to be on the cards, at least in the short term (full report: https://bit.ly/CNB_Mar26_EN). Further information on the potential impact of higher oil prices on the Czech economy can be found here: https://bit.ly/Oil_shock_EN.

Rates outlook: Given that the CNB is relatively well positioned to navigate the oil price shock with a slightly restrictive policy rate and headline inflation below the target, we expect the CNB to wait for more clarity rather than act pre-emptively at this stage. Rate hikes may only be on the table if there are significant second-round effects on other components of inflation. For now, we are keeping our call for CNB policy unchanged and therefore continue to expect interest rates to remain on hold until the end of the year.

We expect Colt CZ’s 4Q25 results to continue reflecting weakness in the U.S. commercial market, which is key for the company. We anticipate consistently strong performance from Colt’s ammunition sector. For 4Q25, we estimate a 17.5% yoy decline in EBITDA to CZK1.3bn. Revenue is expected to be 6.3% lower yoy at CZK6.9bn. For the full year, EBITDA is expected to be CZK4.7bn (+2.9% yoy) on revenue of CZK23bn (+2.8% yoy). This would meet Colt’s full-year goals.

Announcement date: Wednesday, March 25, 2025, before the market

We expect Colt CZ’s 4Q25 results to continue reflecting weakness in the U.S. commercial market, which is key for the company. We anticipate consistently strong performance from Colt’s ammunition sector. For 4Q25, we estimate a 17.5% yoy decline in EBITDA to CZK1.3bn. Revenue is expected to be 6.3% lower yoy at CZK6.9bn. For the full year, EBITDA is expected to be CZK4.7bn (+2.9% yoy) on revenue of CZK23bn (+2.8% yoy). This would meet Colt’s full-year goals.

4Q25 Results: The U.S. civilian market is crucial for the firearms segment. According to available data, the market declined by nearly 13% yoy. It is expected to account for about a quarter of Colt’s total revenue for 4Q25. We anticipate stable performance from the ammunition division. Strong numbers are expected, particularly in Europe. We estimate Colt’s revenue for 4Q25 at CZK6.9bn, a 6.3% yoy decline. EBITDA is expected to reach CZK1.3bn (-17.5% yoy). These figures align with Colt’s guidance of revenue between CZK7-8.5bn and EBITDA between CZK1.1-1.3 bn. We expect the net profit for the fourth quarter of last year to be CZK629m, which is a 1.8% yoy decrease.

2025 Results: We expect full-year revenue to increase by +2.8% yoy to CZK23bn. We estimate EBITDA at CZK4.7bn, a +2.9% yoy increase. Thus, Colt would achieve its revenue target of CZK23–24.5bn and its EBITDA target of CZK4.5–4.8bn.