Issuance activity: Tomorrow, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK2.0bn of 2038 floater. So far this year, MinFin has issued a total of CZK240bn CZGBs on the primary market (MinFin projects CZK270-370bn for the full year), as well as an additional CZK121.8bn on the secondary market. The Ministry of Finance submitted a draft state budget for 2027 with a deficit of CZK389bn (compared to CZK310bn this year).  We estimate that this would lead to a widening of the total public finance deficit from 2.8% of GDP this year to 3.5% of GDP in 2027, intensifying the overall expansionary stance of the fiscal policy. You can find out more on the 2027 draft budget in our special report: https://bit.ly/Budget_2027_EN.

Issuance activity: Tomorrow, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK2.0bn of 2038 floater. So far this year, MinFin has issued a total of CZK240bn CZGBs on the primary market (MinFin projects CZK270-370bn for the full year), as well as an additional CZK121.8bn on the secondary market. The Ministry of Finance submitted a draft state budget for 2027 with a deficit of CZK389bn (compared to CZK310bn this year).  We estimate that this would lead to a widening of the total public finance deficit from 2.8% of GDP this year to 3.5% of GDP in 2027, intensifying the overall expansionary stance of the fiscal policy. You can find out more on the 2027 draft budget in our special report: https://bit.ly/Budget_2027_EN.

Market situation: A sell-off continues in global bond markets, with the 10-year Treasury bond yield hit 5%, while the Brent crude oil price remains above 100 USD/bbl this week. This has also been reflected in CZGB yields, with the 10-year CZGB yield approached 5.4%. While we expect the Fed to raise interest rates on Wednesday, the CNB is likely to keep them unchanged at its meeting on Thursday.

Rates outlook: Our baseline scenario still anticipates that the CNB repo rate will remain at its current level for an extended period. However, energy-related risks and a public finance deficit of 3.5% of GDP next year (compared to the CNB’s August forecast of 2.9%) are skewing the risk of the CNB tightening its monetary policy further. In any case, the market pricing in an additional nearly five hikes seems excessive to us.

Announcement date: Thursday, September 17, 2026, before the market

According to our estimates, Colt CZ is set to report a significant improvement in its financial performance in 2Q26, mainly due to the consolidation of high-margin SNC. We anticipate revenue growth of +55% yoy in 2Q26 to CZK8.5bn. We also expect Colt to report EBITDA of CZK2.2bn, up +89% yoy. These would be the best figures in the company’s history. We expect Colt to reiterate its FY guidance and aim for the upper end of the target range.

Announcement date: Thursday, September 17, 2026, before the market

According to our estimates, Colt CZ is set to report a significant improvement in its financial performance in 2Q26, mainly due to the consolidation of high-margin SNC. We anticipate revenue growth of +55% yoy in 2Q26 to CZK8.5bn. We also expect Colt to report EBITDA of CZK2.2bn, up +89% yoy. These would be the best figures in the company’s history. We expect Colt to reiterate its FY guidance and aim for the upper end of the target range.

We estimate Colt’s total revenue for 2Q26 at CZK8.5bn, representing yoy growth of +55%. We anticipate growth in both the Firearms and Ammunition segments, while the new Energetics segment will also be included in the quarterly report. The acquisition of Synthesia Nitrocellulose (SNC), completed at the beginning of this year, was already reflected in the 1Q26 results. Sales in Europe will be crucial, partly because we expect the US firearms market to remain weak. By contrast, Europe should benefit particularly from increased sales of ammunition and energy materials, which should more than offset weaker overseas sales. EBITDA is expected to increase by +89% yoy to CZK2.2bn. We estimate the 2Q26 margin at 25.5%, implying yoy growth of 4.6pps. Net profit for 2Q26 is expected to reach CZK735m, representing a yoy increase of +61%.

2026 Guidance: We estimate that Colt’s 1H26 revenue and EBITDA will reach 50% and 55% of the midpoints of the respective FY guidance ranges. We anticipate that Colt CZ will reaffirm its full-year outlook. EBITDA is expected to reach CZK7.4–8.2bn on revenue of CZK30–33bn, with Colt CZ likely aiming for the upper end of these ranges.