Czech inflation fell from 2.5% to 2.3% yoy in September. This marked a continuation in its gradual decline from this year’s peak of 2.9% in June. September inflation came in below the market consensus and the CNB forecast (both 2.6% yoy), as well as below our estimate of 2.5%. Inflation thus remained below the central bank’s forecast throughout 3Q25, with its deviation increasing gradually (from -0.1pp in July and -0.2pp in August to -0.3pp in September).

Czech inflation fell from 2.5% to 2.3% yoy in September. This marked a continuation in its gradual decline from this year’s peak of 2.9% in June. September inflation came in below the market consensus and the CNB forecast (both 2.6% yoy), as well as below our estimate of 2.5%. Inflation thus remained below the central bank’s forecast throughout 3Q25, with its deviation increasing gradually (from -0.1pp in July and -0.2pp in August to -0.3pp in September).

The main reason for the deviation from both our and the CNB forecasts was food prices. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices fell by an average of 1.1% mom in September, while the leading indicators we use pointed in the opposite direction. In year-on-year terms, food price growth slowed significantly, from 4.7% to 2.7%, partly due to the higher comparison base of 2H24. The still-elevated food inflation is affected by the adverse global effects of climate change, which may, however, be offset by falling fuel and energy prices. Moreover, according to available information, the local agricultural harvest was better than a year ago. By contrast, alcohol and tobacco prices rose by 0.6% mom, with annual growth accelerating from 2.7% to 3.3%.

Regulated prices were also lower than our forecast, as price increases in education were not as strong. In education, prices traditionally change once a year, at the start of the school year. In September this year, they rose by 4.2% yoy, whereas over the previous twelve months, they had grown at a year-on-year rate of over 11%. This contributed to overall regulated price growth slowing from 1.0% to just 0.7% yoy. In addition, household energy prices continued to fall, with some suppliers announcing further price reductions at the start of the heating season. In September, energy prices fell by an average of 0.7% mom, which represents a significant acceleration in the rate of decline compared to previous months.

Fuel prices declined for the second-consecutive month. In September, they were down 0.7% mom, following a 0.9% decline in August. With the effects of the June conflict in the Middle East fading, the trend of falling prices at petrol stations resumed. This has been supported by increased production by OPEC countries, combined with subdued demand for oil due to the continuing weakness of global manufacturing. Domestic fuel prices are also pushed down by the stronger Czech koruna. Nevertheless, their year-on-year decline moderated from 7.7% to 3.7% in September, as the comparison base had the opposite effect to that seen with food.

Core inflation remained at 2.8% yoy in September. This was in line with the CNB’s forecast, but slightly above our estimate of 2.7%. However, the unrounded figure was on the margin between these two values. After seasonal adjustment, core inflation eased from 0.3% mom in August to 0.1% mom in September, on our estimates. In terms of structure, services continued to be the main driver of price growth. Services inflation was unchanged at 4.7% yoy in September, while goods inflation slowed from 1.1% to 0.8% yoy. In line with our expectations, annual growth in imputed rents remained high, but did not accelerate further (in September, it stagnated at 4.9% yoy for the fourth month in a row). Similarly, growth in paid rents was unchanged at 5.7% yoy. In mom terms, both headline (-0.6% NSA) and core inflation were significantly negative, but this was mainly driven by the fading of the seasonal increase in package holiday prices from the summer months.

We expect the trend of gradually declining inflation to continue, bringing it even closer to the 2% central bank target by the end of the year. If we deduct the impact of this year’s increase in excise duties on tobacco products and alcohol, annual inflation was already at 2.1% in September. However, core inflation is likely to remain elevated until the end of the year, as our forecast does not see it falling below 2.5% yoy. Next year, we expect both headline and core inflation to be close to the CNB’s 2% target.

Due to Moneta's strong capital position, the Board of Directors is proposing an extraordinary dividend of CZK4.0. This corresponds to a gross yield of +2.3%. Moneta paid out an ordinary dividend of CZK10.0 in May of this year.

The General Meeting, at which shareholders will approve the dividend, is scheduled for November 14, 2025. More information will be published.

Last year, Moneta paid its shareholders an extraordinary dividend of CZK3.0, in addition to the standard dividend of CZK9.0.

Due to Moneta's strong capital position, the Board of Directors is proposing an extraordinary dividend of CZK4.0. This corresponds to a gross yield of +2.3%. Moneta paid out an ordinary dividend of CZK10.0 in May of this year.

The General Meeting, at which shareholders will approve the dividend, is scheduled for November 14, 2025. More information will be published.

Last year, Moneta paid its shareholders an extraordinary dividend of CZK3.0, in addition to the standard dividend of CZK9.0.