Issuance activity: Tomorrow, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK2.0bn of 2035 bonds, CZK2.0bn of 2037 bonds and CZK2.0bn of 2038 floaters. The amount of subscribed retail bonds during the first subscription period, which ended on June 28, reached approx. CZK80.0bn according to MinFin. There are two more periods in this year: one in August-September, with only the 3m bill on tap, and the second before Christmas, with all three bonds on offer. Overall, with CZK291.2bn issued on the primary and secondary market combined ytd and MinFin’s indicated issuance volume on financial markets prior to the retail bonds campaign at CZK400-500bn, the issuance pace is likely to slow in 2H26 before picking up in 2027 (or eventually in 4Q26 already) due to a deeper budget deficit and higher redemptions next year.

Issuance activity: Tomorrow, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK2.0bn of 2035 bonds, CZK2.0bn of 2037 bonds and CZK2.0bn of 2038 floaters. The amount of subscribed retail bonds during the first subscription period, which ended on June 28, reached approx. CZK80.0bn according to MinFin. There are two more periods in this year: one in August-September, with only the 3m bill on tap, and the second before Christmas, with all three bonds on offer. Overall, with CZK291.2bn issued on the primary and secondary market combined ytd and MinFin’s indicated issuance volume on financial markets prior to the retail bonds campaign at CZK400-500bn, the issuance pace is likely to slow in 2H26 before picking up in 2027 (or eventually in 4Q26 already) due to a deeper budget deficit and higher redemptions next year.

Market situation: Czech rates came under downward pressure last week following lower-than-expected June CPI (more here: https://bit.ly/CPI_Jun26_EN) and dovish communication by NBP Chief Glapinski following the interest rate decision. However, another round of escalation in the conflict in the Middle East has recently reversed these moves amid the flattening of the CZK IRS and CZGB curves.

Rates outlook: Our baseline scenario is that CNB interest rates will remain on hold for the rest of this year, as we view the June hike as primarily a precautionary measure. However, in terms of the next possible rate movement, we still consider a hike to be more likely than a cut. This is due to the robust domestic economy, rapid wage growth, fiscal expansion (more here: https://bit.ly/CNB_Jun26_EN).

Investment Recommendation: We have updated our expectations for Moneta Money Bank. Based on our estimates, we are issuing a new target price and rating. Our new target price is CZK192.0 per share, and we are issuing a Hold recommendation. (Both have been under review since April 24, 2026.) Compared to peers, Moneta is trading at a premium. It is therefore more expensive than its competitors. According to our estimates, Moneta is trading at a P/B of 3.0x, a P/E of 14.8x, and a P/S of 7.0x. The median for the group of comparable companies is 1.5x, 9.9x, and 2.2x respectively. In our view, the premium is justified. This is due to its strong capital position, asset quality, and conservative business model. Furthermore, Moneta offers one of the highest dividend yield in the group.

Investment Recommendation: We have updated our expectations for Moneta Money Bank. Based on our estimates, we are issuing a new target price and rating. Our new target price is CZK192.0 per share, and we are issuing a Hold recommendation. (Both have been under review since April 24, 2026.) Compared to peers, Moneta is trading at a premium. It is therefore more expensive than its competitors. According to our estimates, Moneta is trading at a P/B of 3.0x, a P/E of 14.8x, and a P/S of 7.0x. The median for the group of comparable companies is 1.5x, 9.9x, and 2.2x respectively. In our view, the premium is justified. This is due to its strong capital position, asset quality, and conservative business model. Furthermore, Moneta offers one of the highest dividend yield in the group.

Results and Outlook: According to our estimates, Moneta should report a yoy revenue growth of +4.8% to CZK14.6bn this year. We also expect the net interest margin to remain stable. Operating expenses will also rise, by +3.0% yoy to CZK6.0bn, but at a slower pace than income growth. Personnel costs will see the most significant increase among expense items (+8.5% yoy). The cost of risk will also rise. However, this increase will be from a very low base, rising from 16bps to 23bps. According to our estimates, net income will reach CZK6.7bn (+2,4 % yoy).  

Shareholder remuneration: Throughout the year, Moneta sets aside a reserve for the payment of 90% of its consolidated net income. On May 15 of this year, Moneta paid its shareholders CZK11.50 per share, which equates to a gross yield of +5.8%. In previous years, Moneta paid an extra dividend in addition to the standard dividend: CZK9 and CZK3 in 2024, and CZK10 and CZK4 in 2025. The total payout ratio was 118% and 123%, respectively. In our projections, we assume that Moneta will pay out its entire consolidated profit. However, we anticipate that Moneta will also pay an extraordinary dividend this year. This is supported by the fact that Moneta issued an additional EUR150m of Tier 1 capital. This optimizes the capital structure and should increase the capital adequacy ratio. According to Moneta, this will allow them to maintain an attractive dividend policy. The EUR150m issuance corresponds to approximately CZK3.6bn, or CZK7.1 per share. Next year, we expect a 100% payout, which corresponds to CZK13.0 and a yield of +6.8%. The ability to pay dividends depends on capital adequacy. Moneta has a strong capital base, well above regulatory requirements, including a management buffer.

Valuation: We arrived at Moneta’s target price using three methods: the discounted cash flow model, the dividend discount model, and the excess return model. A comparison of our new target price with the current market price suggests a total return of +7.4%. This corresponds to a Hold recommendation.