Economy starting to recover After last year’s contraction of 0.2%, we expect GDP growth of 1.4% this year and an acceleration to 2.2% next year. The recovery should be driven by renewed growth in domestic demand, both consumption and investment. Continued increases in real wages should help boost household spending. In contrast, industrial activity will remain weak this year.

Inflation to remain close to central bank’s 2% target We expect headline inflation to reach 2.1% this year and fall to 1.8% next year. While food prices should decline this year, core and regulated price growth are likely to remain above 2%. In 2025, monetary tightening will be fully reflected in core inflation and lower wholesale energy prices in regulated prices.

Economy starting to recover After last year’s contraction of 0.2%, we expect GDP growth of 1.4% this year and an acceleration to 2.2% next year. The recovery should be driven by renewed growth in domestic demand, both consumption and investment. Continued increases in real wages should help boost household spending. In contrast, industrial activity will remain weak this year.

Inflation to remain close to central bank’s 2% target We expect headline inflation to reach 2.1% this year and fall to 1.8% next year. While food prices should decline this year, core and regulated price growth are likely to remain above 2%. In 2025, monetary tightening will be fully reflected in core inflation and lower wholesale energy prices in regulated prices.

CNB to continue its gradual rate cuts The bank board attributes its ongoing cautious approach to the rapid rise in services prices and the weaker koruna. We expect a 50bp cut at each of the next three meetings. By the end of the year, we expect the repo rate to be at 3.5%, which should be the terminal rate for the current monetary cycle.

Market interest rates unlikely to fall too far Higher terminal interest rates for the ECB, the Fed and the CNB will prevent a more pronounced decline in CZK market interest rates and thus also in CZGB yields.

The koruna may appreciate slightly over the rest of the year We expect renewed appreciation vs the euro, mainly in connection with improving domestic economic fundamentals. However, global sentiment will continue to favour the US dollar.

Today, Friday, April 26, 2024, Moneta shares are traded without the right to receive a dividend from last year's profits. It is usual for the share price to fall by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date.

At Tuesday's Annual General Meeting, shareholders approved a dividend of CZK9 per share.

The approved dividend offers a dividend yield of +8.7% (gross).

Payment will commence on May 21, 2024.

Today, Friday, April 26, 2024, Moneta shares are traded without the right to receive a dividend from last year's profits. It is usual for the share price to fall by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date.

At Tuesday's Annual General Meeting, shareholders approved a dividend of CZK9 per share.

The approved dividend offers a dividend yield of +8.7% (gross).

Payment will commence on May 21, 2024.