MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK6.0bn of four-year bonds, CZK5.0bn of nine-year bonds and CZK2.0bn of 19-year bonds. All offered bonds are well known from recent auctions. We expect the highest demand for CZGB 0.00% Dec-24 due to the low supply of short maturities and investor preferences. On the other hand, CZGB 1.50% Apr-40 in the last auction disappointed MinFin's expectations as demand for longer maturities gradually declines.

Issuance activity: MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK6.0bn of four-year bonds, CZK5.0bn of nine-year bonds and CZK2.0bn of 19-year bonds. All offered bonds are well known from recent auctions. We expect the highest demand for CZGB 0.00% Dec-24 due to the low supply of short maturities and investor preferences. On the other hand, CZGB 1.50% Apr-40 in the last auction disappointed MinFin's expectations as demand for longer maturities gradually declines. For March, MinFin expects the issuance of CZGB in the maximum volume of CZK54bn and CZK10bn in T-bills. We thus expect CZGB issuance on the primary market to reach CZK125bn in the first quarter, which would mean a historically record start to the year. In total, this would imply securing 25% of all borrowing needs, assuming a state budget deficit of CZK400bn. The published calendar includes also CZGB 4.20% Dec-36, which was recently included in the GBI-EM. MinFin likely wants to take advantage of the higher demand associated with it. You can learn what we expect from the CZGB market this year in CZGB Focus (see http://bit.ly/CZGBFocus).

Market situation: Over the past week, local rates have followed the global trend of rising yields. The IRS curve steepened significantly and CZGB yields followed. The short end became cheaper, while the long end slightly more expensive in ASW terms. In both cases, however, CZGB yields still have a way to go.

Rates outlook: CZK rates are at new highs and CZGB yields should follow. Ultra-short maturities may see a slight correction; however, we do not currently expect a larger decline until inflation shows a more pronounced slowdown or the koruna strengthens too much, which should provoke the CNB's reaction and moderate market expectations.

Announcement date: Wednesday, 3 March 2021

Expected financial results: According to our projections, the results for last year (2020) should be the best in history. We assume that Avast will meet the goals of its management, which were repeated on the occasion of the publication of selected operating indicators for 3Q20 (21 October 2020).

Announcement date: Wednesday, 3 March 2021

Expected financial results: According to our projections, the results for last year (2020) should be the best in history. We assume that Avast will meet the goals of its management, which were repeated on the occasion of the publication of selected operating indicators for 3Q20 (21 October 2020).

We expect Avast will report EBITDA of $509m with revenues of $917m. Compared to the previous year, this is an increase of 5.4% and 5.1% respectively. Our revenues estimate is rather conservative compared to the company's guidance of sales growth by the upper end of the mid-single digits. The most important part of revenues is unsurprisingly the consumer direct segment, which accounts for almost 82% of total sales. We also expect costs not to grow at the same pace as revenues. This is behind the slight increase in the EBITDA margin from 55.3% to 55.5%. Net profit should then reach $343m (6.3% yoy).

Regarding leverage at the end of the year, we estimate a further decline to 1.4x (net debt / EBITDA) from the 1.5x reported in 3Q20. Avast demonstrates its strong ability to generate cash, and debt has fallen rapidly after acquisitions in previous years.