Issuance activity: Tomorrow, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK3.0bn of 2035 bonds, CZK2.0bn of 2036 bonds and CZK1.0bn of 2043 floaters. MinFin has indicated that it will postpone the publication of its 2H26 Funding and Debt Management Strategy until 17 July to fully capture the subscription period for retail bonds which ends on 28 June. As of 19 June, the demand for new retail bonds reached CZK70.6bn, of which CZK39.1bn was fixed-coupon bonds, CZK22.0bn was 3M 'flexi-bonds', and CZK9.5bn was retail inflation-linked bonds. We keep our full-year retail issuance assumption at CZK100bn and gross market CZGB issuance at ~CZK370bn. Overall, with CZK150.7bn issued on the primary market and CZK106.9bn on the secondary market YTD, the issuance pace may slow in 2H26 before picking up in 2027 (or eventually in 4Q26 already) due to a deeper budget deficit and higher redemptions next year.

Issuance activity: Tomorrow, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK3.0bn of 2035 bonds, CZK2.0bn of 2036 bonds and CZK1.0bn of 2043 floaters. MinFin has indicated that it will postpone the publication of its 2H26 Funding and Debt Management Strategy until 17 July to fully capture the subscription period for retail bonds which ends on 28 June. As of 19 June, the demand for new retail bonds reached CZK70.6bn, of which CZK39.1bn was fixed-coupon bonds, CZK22.0bn was 3M 'flexi-bonds', and CZK9.5bn was retail inflation-linked bonds. We keep our full-year retail issuance assumption at CZK100bn and gross market CZGB issuance at ~CZK370bn. Overall, with CZK150.7bn issued on the primary market and CZK106.9bn on the secondary market YTD, the issuance pace may slow in 2H26 before picking up in 2027 (or eventually in 4Q26 already) due to a deeper budget deficit and higher redemptions next year.

Market situation: Last week, the CNB delivered a precautionary 25bp rate hike as hinted at by the central bank’s last-minute change in public communication prior to the meeting. However, the CNB did not provide any hawkish signals for the future, dropping the 'hike or stability' option for the next rate move at the press conference. All CNB speakers (Michl, Procházka, Zamrazilová) also stated that the June hike was unlikely to mark the start of a tightening cycle (more on the CNB meeting can be found here: https://bit.ly/CNB_Jun26_EN). As the markets had anticipated the move and were (and still are) pricing in another rate hike later this year, the CZK IRS found little reason to react to the CNB meeting. The flattening of the curve over the past week is likely a reflection of global trends, primarily in response to the hawkish Fed meeting.   

Rates outlook: Our baseline scenario is that CNB interest rates will remain on hold for the rest of this year, as we view the June hike as primarily a precautionary measure. However, in terms of the next possible rate movement, we still consider a hike to be more likely than a cut. This is due to the robust domestic economy, rapid wage growth, and fiscal expansion.

Starting Wednesday, July 1, 2026, Colt shares will trade ex-dividend for fiscal year 2025. The share price typically declines on the first day without dividend rights.

At the Annual General Meeting on Friday, June 26, 2026, the Board of Directors’ proposal to pay a dividend of CZK30 per share was approved.

This dividend corresponds to a payout ratio of 92.6% and offers a gross yield of +3.3%.

Starting Wednesday, July 1, 2026, Colt shares will trade ex-dividend for fiscal year 2025. The share price typically declines on the first day without dividend rights.

At the Annual General Meeting on Friday, June 26, 2026, the Board of Directors’ proposal to pay a dividend of CZK30 per share was approved.

This dividend corresponds to a payout ratio of 92.6% and offers a gross yield of +3.3%.