From a seasonal perspective, the third quarter is the strongest, and a successful 3Q is essential for meeting the full-year targets. For 3Q25, we estimate an 8.7% yoy decline in sales to CZK3.2bn and an EBITDA of CZK733m (-2.4% yoy). These results will account for approximately 74% of Kofola's full-year targets for both lines since the beginning of the year. However, given the seasonally weaker fourth quarter, it will be a real challenge for Kofola to meet its targets.

Announcement date: Tuesday, November 25, 2025, at 5pm

From a seasonal perspective, the third quarter is the strongest, and a successful 3Q is essential for meeting the full-year targets. For 3Q25, we estimate an 8.7% yoy decline in sales to CZK3.2bn and an EBITDA of CZK733m (-2.4% yoy). These results will account for approximately 74% of Kofola's full-year targets for both lines since the beginning of the year. However, given the seasonally weaker fourth quarter, it will be a real challenge for Kofola to meet its targets.

Although revenues declined in July and August due to unfavorable weather (-8% and -11%, respectively), the lower comparative base from last year's September floods should offset some of this decline. Additionally, ASO Vending is expected to contribute positively by approximately 1.5 months in 3Q25. We estimate a 8.7% yoy decline in Kofola's revenues to CZK3.2bn in 3Q25. We expect Kofola to demonstrate strict cost discipline. This should apply to marketing costs, where we expect campaigns to slow down, as well as to personnel and admin costs. According to our model, EBITDA will reach CZK733m. This corresponds to a yoy decline of 2.4%. However, the margin will increase by +1.5pps, reaching 22.8%. We estimate net profit for 3Q25 at CZK423m, which is a +20% yoy increase.

2025 Guidance: According to the updated projection after 3Q25/1H25, Kofola should achieve an EBITDA of CZK1.9bn in 2025, with a +1.5% yoy revenue growth. Our EBITDA and revenue expectations for the first nine months (1H25 + e3Q25) are 74% of the full-year target. Due to seasonality, as 4Q is one of the two weakest quarters, meeting the full-year targets seems challenging. The expected results must be delivered by the acquired company, ASO Vending, and other recent acquisitions. The lower comparative base due to last year's floods will also have a positive impact. We also expect further cost reductions, e.g. in marketing. We estimate full-year EBITDA at CZK1.87bn and total revenue growth at +1.8% yoy.