Issuance activity: On Wednesday, 21 October, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK4.0bn of 2031 bonds, CZK2.0bn of 2034 bonds and CZK1.0bn of 2043 floater. Last week, the MinFin announced that it had issued an additional CZK17.5bn of 3M retail T-bills. This year's total retail issuance has therefore reached CZK91.5bn. The retail campaign is likely to continue to reduce the overall CZGB supply on financial markets next year too, as another subscription period is already planned for the end of the year, with the securities being issued in 1Q27. So far this year, MinFin has issued a total of CZK292.6bn CZGBs on the primary market (MinFin projects CZK270 370bn for the full year), as well as an additional CZK121.8bn on the secondary market.

Issuance activity: On Wednesday, 21 October, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK4.0bn of 2031 bonds, CZK2.0bn of 2034 bonds and CZK1.0bn of 2043 floater. Last week, the MinFin announced that it had issued an additional CZK17.5bn of 3M retail T-bills. This year's total retail issuance has therefore reached CZK91.5bn. The retail campaign is likely to continue to reduce the overall CZGB supply on financial markets next year too, as another subscription period is already planned for the end of the year, with the securities being issued in 1Q27. So far this year, MinFin has issued a total of CZK292.6bn CZGBs on the primary market (MinFin projects CZK270 370bn for the full year), as well as an additional CZK121.8bn on the secondary market.

Market situation: CZGB yields are hovering just below recent local peaks, with a slight cheapening in ASW terms. With a light data calendar this week, it is likely that the Czech rates markets will continue to be driven primarily by core markets. However, with less than two weeks until the CNB's media blackout period begins on 29 October, we may start to hear comments from board members.

Rates outlook: Given the rise in core inflation and its momentum in September, we now expect the CNB to raise key repo rate by 25bp to 4% at its upcoming November meeting. Although further rate hikes beyond the November meeting cannot be ruled out, we still consider the market’s expectation of a repo rate rising to near 5% over the next year to be excessive, as confirmed recently also by comments from the CNB. Longer CZK IRS and CZGB yields are likely to continue to mimic the core markets, with neither 10-year Bund yields nor 10-year EUR IRS having peaked yet, according to the external assumptions of our forecast.

Moneta reported a net profit for the third quarter that exceeded market consensus by a substantial +11.8%. Net profit increased by +20.5% yoy to reach CZK2.2bn. This corresponds to a RoTE of 28.2%. These significantly improved results are due to higher revenues, lower costs, and a very low cost of risk. Moneta's strong figures showed a solid yoy increase and significantly exceeded market consensus. Moneta’s management has also raised its full-year targets by +4.4%.

Moneta reported a net profit for the third quarter that exceeded market consensus by a substantial +11.8%. Net profit increased by +20.5% yoy to reach CZK2.2bn. This corresponds to a RoTE of 28.2%. These significantly improved results are due to higher revenues, lower costs, and a very low cost of risk. Moneta's strong figures showed a solid yoy increase and significantly exceeded market consensus. Moneta’s management has also raised its full-year targets by +4.4%.

Total operating income for 3Q26 increased by a significant +11.5% yoy, reaching CZK3.9bn. This exceeded estimates by 3.0%. NII increased by +12.1% yoy, but other income categories also grew (NF&C by +5.8% and others by +28.6%). NIM increased both qoq (+10bps) and yoy (+20bps), reaching 2.2%. Strict cost control resulted in a decline of 2.2% yoy to CZK1.3bn, which is 4.5% better than the consensus estimate. Operating profit of CZK2.6bn increased by a significant +19.7% yoy. This beat market estimates by +7.1%. This is due to higher revenues and lower costs. The very low CoR, at CZK78m, was unexpected. The market had expected CZK172m. Net profit for 3Q26 was CZK2.2bn, representing yoy growth of +20.5%. Moneta thus exceeded market estimates by +11.8%. RoTE reached 28.2%.

The loan portfolio increased by +10.4% yoy to CZK318bn. Both retail loans (+5.1% yoy to CZK197bn) and, in particular, commercial loans increased. The latter recorded growth of +20.3% yoy to CZK120bn. Within this category, Moneta granted a higher volume of investment loans (+24.8% yoy to CZK67.1bn). The volume of new loans granted increased by +39.2% yoy, reflecting strong demand. The NPL ratio remained at a very low level of 0.9%.

Customer deposits rose by +4.5% yoy.  

Moneta’s capital adequacy ratio stood at 19.03%. The excess capital above Moneta’s management target (15.5%) amounts to CZK6.4bn.

2026 Guidance: Moneta has raised its FY projections. This is the second time this year. Total income is expected to reach CZK15.0bn (previously CZK14.8bn), with costs of CZK5.9bn (previously CZK5.9bn). Operating profit is expected to reach CZK9.1bn (previously CZK8.9bn), with net profit CZK7.1bn (previously CZK6.8bn). Management estimates the cost of risk at 20–30bps.

 

The published figures YTD account for approximately 74.5% of revenue, just 70.9% of operating costs, 76.8% of operating profit and 77.8% of net profit. This is compared against Moneta’s updated outlook.