Issuance activity: Tomorrow, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK5.0bn of 2034 bonds and CZK2.0bn of 2038 floaters. In July MinFin indicates to supply CZK24.0bn of CZGBs in total, which is slightly above ytd average of CZK21.3bn. Nevertheless, issuance calendar volumes are not binding and MinFin has sold around 40 % higher volume of CZGBs in primary auctions than indicated ytd. As for the CZGB supply in 2H25, it is, in our view, unlikely to decrease meaningfully compared to 1H25. In1H25 MinFin has issued CZK181.3bn in primary auctions and an additional CZK10.4bn and EUR250mn in the secondary market thus far this year. MinFin’s update of the Strategy states that in 2H25 it plans to issue CZK150-250bn, which is consistent to the full-year plan of CZK350-450bn in the previous strategy published in January.

Issuance activity: Tomorrow, MinFin is scheduled to auction CZK5.0bn of 2034 bonds and CZK2.0bn of 2038 floaters. In July MinFin indicates to supply CZK24.0bn of CZGBs in total, which is slightly above ytd average of CZK21.3bn. Nevertheless, issuance calendar volumes are not binding and MinFin has sold around 40 % higher volume of CZGBs in primary auctions than indicated ytd. As for the CZGB supply in 2H25, it is, in our view, unlikely to decrease meaningfully compared to 1H25. In1H25 MinFin has issued CZK181.3bn in primary auctions and an additional CZK10.4bn and EUR250mn in the secondary market thus far this year. MinFin’s update of the Strategy (https://www.mfcr.cz/en/fiscal-policy/state-debt/publications-and-presentations/funding-and-debt-management-strategy/2025/the-czech-republic-funding-and-debt-management-str-60264) states that in 2H25 it plans to issue CZK150-250bn, which is consistent to the full-year plan of CZK350-450bn in the previous strategy published in January.

Market situation: On the Czech data front, June flash CPI will be published on Friday. We expect Czech inflation to have increased further in June, from 2.4% to 2.9% yoy. The base effect should continue to have an impact. This will also likely be reflected in core inflation, which we expect to have accelerated from 2.8% to 3.0% yoy. Growth in services prices, including the strong rise in housing prices, is likely to remain high (full preview: https://insight.sgmarkets.com/publication/340052?lang=en).

Rates outlook: Front-end CZK IRS is likely to remain elevated in the near term relative to EUR IRS due to accelerating yoy inflation and hawkish CNB (see: https://bit.ly/CNB_Jun25_EN). There are no further cuts priced in for the remainder of 2025 in the FRAs. However, we expect headline inflation to gradually settle close to the central bank’s 2% target in 2H25 and remain there in 2026. This positive outlook, coupled with an expected economic slowdown, should lead to further CNB rate cuts later this year to the end-year 3% terminal.

Kofola is ex-dividend today, Thursday, July 3, 2025. At the general meeting, shareholders approved a payout of CZK21 per share. However, the dividend payment will be reduced by an advanced dividend of CZK7.50, which was distributed in October 2024. The difference between the two, i.e. CZK13.50 per share, will be paid out.

The total dividend corresponds to an almost 90% payout of the previous year's adjusted net profit. The dividend of CZK13.50 offers a gross yield of 2.5% (the total dividend of CZK21 corresponds to a yield of 3.9%).

The record date is July 4, 2025. With standard settlement (T+2), today is the first day that shareholders no longer have the right to receive the CZK 13.50 dividend. The share price usually falls by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date.

Payments will start on August 11, 2025.

Kofola is ex-dividend today, Thursday, July 3, 2025. At the general meeting, shareholders approved a payout of CZK21 per share. However, the dividend payment will be reduced by an advanced dividend of CZK7.50, which was distributed in October 2024. The difference between the two, i.e. CZK13.50 per share, will be paid out.

The total dividend corresponds to an almost 90% payout of the previous year's adjusted net profit. The dividend of CZK13.50 offers a gross yield of 2.5% (the total dividend of CZK21 corresponds to a yield of 3.9%).

The record date is July 4, 2025. With standard settlement (T+2), today is the first day that shareholders no longer have the right to receive the CZK 13.50 dividend. The share price usually falls by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date.

Payments will start on August 11, 2025.