Czech inflation rose from 2.4% yoy in May to 2.9% yoy in June. This was in line with our forecast and the market consensus. The Czech National Bank had expected inflation to reach 2.8% yoy in June, but the pace was already 0.1pp above the central bank’s forecast in May. The lower base of last year significantly contributed to further acceleration in yoy consumer price growth, following 2.4% yoy in May and 1.8% yoy in April.

Czech inflation rose from 2.4% yoy in May to 2.9% yoy in June. This was in line with our forecast and the market consensus. The Czech National Bank had expected inflation to reach 2.8% yoy in June, but the pace was already 0.1pp above the central bank’s forecast in May. The lower base of last year significantly contributed to further acceleration in yoy consumer price growth, following 2.4% yoy in May and 1.8% yoy in April.

While fuel prices increased, food prices remained broadly unchanged. Fuel prices rose by 1.0% mom in June, exceeding our forecast. This was primarily due to developments in the final week of the month, after our estimate had been finalised. The conflict in the Middle East and the subsequent increase in oil prices continued to affect fuel prices. Nevertheless, they were still 9% lower than a year ago. By contrast, food price growth was slightly below our forecast. The price of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 0.2% mom, while the price of alcoholic beverages and tobacco fell by 0.2% mom. However, on a yoy basis, price growth of food and non-alcoholic beverages accelerated from 5.4% to 6.2% and that of alcoholic beverages and tobacco from 3.7% to 4.1%. This was due to the lower base effect. Regulated prices edged up by 0.1% mom, which was broadly in line with our forecast. Energy prices continued to decline gradually, by an average of 0.3% mom.

Core inflation accelerated from 2.8% to 3.0% yoy in June. This was in line with our estimate and the CNB’s forecast. However, we estimate that core inflation slowed from 0.3% to 0.2% mom in seasonally adjusted terms. Year-on-year core inflation was also affected by the base effect related to package holiday prices, which deviated from their traditional seasonal pattern last year. While package holiday prices increased by 0.2% mom in June 2024, they rose by 2.4% mom in June 2025.

Services price growth increased from 4.9% to 5.0% yoy in June, boosted by higher rents. Although imputed rents slowed from 0.8% mom to a still-significant 0.5% mom, their yoy growth increased from 4.6% to 4.9%. Strong house price growth continued to impact the affordability of owner-occupied housing, putting pressure on paid rents, which increased by a notable 0.7% mom after rising by 0.3% mom in May. Consequently, yoy growth in paid rents accelerated from 5.7% to 6.3%. However, elevated services inflation was still offset by goods prices, which increased from 0.9% to 1.6% yoy in June, but mainly due to higher food price growth driven by the base effect.

We assume that June was the peak of both headline and core inflation. We expect to see a gradual decline over the coming months. This trend should be supported by a higher base effect, given that the momentum of food prices and core inflation increased in 2H24 compared to 1H24. Indeed, 2H24 was already marked by accelerated imputed rent growth, which should reduce further increases in yoy dynamics in 2H25.

We forecast inflation to be close to 2.4% in 2025, so roughly the same as last year. We expect headline inflation to fall gradually to the 2% target over the remainder of the year, though core inflation is likely to remain above 2.5% yoy, in our view. Nevertheless, we anticipate that both price indicators will approach 2% next year. We expect inflation to be driven down by the impact of tight monetary policy, positive spillovers from lower energy and fuel prices, and a slowdown in the domestic economy due to US tariffs.

Kofola is ex-dividend today, Thursday, July 3, 2025. At the general meeting, shareholders approved a payout of CZK21 per share. However, the dividend payment will be reduced by an advanced dividend of CZK7.50, which was distributed in October 2024. The difference between the two, i.e. CZK13.50 per share, will be paid out.

The total dividend corresponds to an almost 90% payout of the previous year's adjusted net profit. The dividend of CZK13.50 offers a gross yield of 2.5% (the total dividend of CZK21 corresponds to a yield of 3.9%).

The record date is July 4, 2025. With standard settlement (T+2), today is the first day that shareholders no longer have the right to receive the CZK 13.50 dividend. The share price usually falls by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date.

Payments will start on August 11, 2025.

Kofola is ex-dividend today, Thursday, July 3, 2025. At the general meeting, shareholders approved a payout of CZK21 per share. However, the dividend payment will be reduced by an advanced dividend of CZK7.50, which was distributed in October 2024. The difference between the two, i.e. CZK13.50 per share, will be paid out.

The total dividend corresponds to an almost 90% payout of the previous year's adjusted net profit. The dividend of CZK13.50 offers a gross yield of 2.5% (the total dividend of CZK21 corresponds to a yield of 3.9%).

The record date is July 4, 2025. With standard settlement (T+2), today is the first day that shareholders no longer have the right to receive the CZK 13.50 dividend. The share price usually falls by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date.

Payments will start on August 11, 2025.